I was listening this week to Jim Messina, known in Washington DC as “The Fixer”. From 2009 to 2011, Messina served as deputy chief of staff for operations under President Barack Obama. Messina was also campaign manager during Obama’s 2012 successful re-election campaign

The problem, according to Messina, is that voters don’t seem to understand what the Tory message is anymore. It’s as if the party is speaking, but no one is listening.

Part of this is due to the fact that Conservatives have been in power since winning the 2019 General Election. People seem simply tired of them.

However, Messina thinks another factor is in play. If you look at the UK Prime Minister’s daily events, you will see him standing at a podium featuring three or four separate slogans, which is confusing for voters.

Contrast that with the UK’s Labour Party, which has stuck religiously to a single message: Change. Messina says elections are decided by ordinary voters who don’t think about politics much, as they go about their daily lives.

“The most important thing is message to voters. People, at least in the US, think about politics four minutes a week and the have two and a half jobs. And you have to have a very clear message about what you are going to do to make their lives better. And I think too often make it too confusing and too complex.”

Jim Messina, Politico Power Play Podcast, Episode 40, 19 June 2024

In a separate but clearly related point, Messina also discusses the importance of message discipline. Even if you have a single, clear message, success will be elusive if you fail to deliberately concentrate on the consistent delivery of that message.

“I used to say to Barack Obama, every day you are talking about yourself, we lose because incumbents usually lose referendums on themselves.”

Jim Messina, Politico Power Play Podcast, Episode 40, 19 June 2024

This might be a useful reminder for politicians in Saskatchewan, attempting to defend their record or aspiring to the Office of the Premier. Every day that you are off-message is a day that the seed you are attempting to plant in the mind of the electorate might fail to germinate.

Every day you are talking about whether or not you believe in chemtrails or rebuffing calls for an investigation into alleged harassment of Saskatchewan’s Speaker of the Legislative Assembly is a day you are not articulating your core message. Nor are you comparing and contrasting your record with the record of your opponents. Yes, there is still plenty of time before the next Saskatchewan provincial general election in late October. However, as Messina states in his interview time is the only thing you can’t get more of in politics and time is always running-out.

Not only is message clarity important for external audiences, it is also important for internal political audiences. Those who are newly elected or re-elected need to be incredibly clear in stating their goals and priorities, when dealing with public servants.

This point was driven home recently by UK policy advisor Polly Mackenzie. She says politicians and the staff they hire must be absolutely clear and consistent on what structural and systemic changes they want to see during the term of a government. The people you surround yourself with as you govern take on a great importance:

There has been kind of a growing tendency to have special advisors, across the spectrum actually, who are very young, exuberant and enthusiastic about briefings and playing kind-of-political games. If you are expecting to go into potentially a two or three term government and do serious things for the country, the kind of people you need about you as a new Minister, and I think special advisors are important and the yare important for more than just press relations — they bring a kind of intellectual perspective a challenge into the civil service–that sense of who are the minds you want about you, to help you navigate the incredibly complicated and difficult world of policy and system change.

Polly Mackenzie, How to Win an Election podcast, The Times, 18 June 2024

Finally, after 45 continuous years of employment in journalism, politics and the education sector, I find myself heading into retirement in a matter of days. It has been a difficult year in education. So I would like to extend my best wishes to all of the teachers in the province. I hope you all have a restful summer and experience nothing but success and satisfaction in the coming years.

And while I may not have agreed with all of his policies (most particularly his Brexit strategy), I do find former UK Prime Minister David Cameron had a wonderful way of saying good-bye to his friends, colleagues and opponents during his final Prime Minister’s Questions in July of 2016 . You can watch it here:

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-politics-36781565

To paraphrase and adapt to my own circumstances, I will say that people enter into the education sector with huge passion for the students in their care. They enter the profession with great love for public education and a strong desire to transmit the knowledge needed for young people to become productive and informed members of our larger society.

And from my new spot on the sidelines, I will be willing you on and wishing you every success.

The Politico Power Play podcast can be found here: https://www.politico.eu/power-play-podcast/

The Times How to Win an Election podcast is found here: https://www.thetimes.com/podcasts/how-to-win-an-election

Everyone in Saskatchewan should be interested in elections and campaign strategy. We’re about to get a bunch of elections. People across Saskatchewan will vote in a province-wide election at the end of October (or possibly sooner, but I somehow doubt it). Municipal and school board elections take place in mid-November, I’m sure just has voter fatigue begins to set in. And as we have seen with the recent announcements by two high-profile candidates for Mayor of Saskatoon, we are about to get inundated with campaign literature, political messaging and promises of future performance. So many promises.

Thus, it behooves all of us to seek out information, make comparisons and exercise our franchise in a critical and responsible manner. And, for those who want to take matters a step further, I’ve accidently discovered a podcast from The Times in London that does an excellent job explaining the behind the scenes work done in organizing a major political campaign. Yes, it’s from the UK. However, after listening to several episodes, I have discovered this podcast, along with being entertaining, does a great job at shedding light on the strategies, tactics, organizational and logistical challenges and personalities involved in the political process. In so far as these successful electioneering concepts cross party lines and cross-pollinate through national boundaries, it holds much of relevance for Saskatchewan and Canada (in fact, several recent episodes have mentioned how UK Conservatives are now focused with horror on Canada’s 1993 election where our Tories were reduced to just a pair of seats).

The podcast is called How to win an Election and is available on Apple Podcasts and all of the other usual locations.

The program is hosted by Times Radio presenter Matt Chorley who does a commendable job of allowing his guests the room to develop their answers. Chorley also has the sadly rare skill of asking questions that are actually questions–giving program participants something to chew on.

.About the only sour note in the entire program (literally and metaphorically) is the theme music, which some may appreciate but I find particularly grating. In fact, the annoying nature of the theme music has become something of a running gag in recent weeks.

The regular guest commentators are three giants in recent UK political life: Daniel Finkelstein, Peter Mandelson and Polly Mackenzie.

Mackenzie is a well known and well respected policy expert who negotiated the Liberal Democrat-Conservative coalition and then spent five years working with deputy prime minister Nick Clegg in Downing Street (she may look back on this period with mixed feelings since significant cuts and restraint during the Cameron years probably led to a long period in the political wilderness for the Lib-Dems).

“I’m excited to pick apart the twists and turns of the looming election with this supremely experienced panel, who’ve seen elections from inside and out, upside and down, and every side of the track.”

Polly Mackenzie, UK Podcasting Today, 20 October 2023

Peter Mandelson is a giant in UK politics. He’s a former Labour cabinet minister, an advisor to Neil Kinnock, John Smith, Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. Mandelson is one of the engineers of New Labour’s massive election win in 1997.

“There is no better time to put election campaigns under the microscope and ask how Labour is going to end its long run of election losses and whether the Tories still have some fight left in them.”

Peter Mandelson, UK Podcasting Today, 20 October 2023

Daniel Finkelstein is to Conservatives is what Mandelson is to Labour. He’s been a key advisor in successful campaigns led by David Cameron and the unsuccessful campaign led by John Major. Baron Finkelstein (OBE) is also former executive editor of The Times and continues to write an excellent weekly political column. He was also an unsuccessful Conservative parliamentary candidate for Harrow West. (There’s no shame in political advisors losing elections. One of the greatest minds in American politics, JFK speechwriter Ted Sorensen, ran and bombed spectacularly. Strategic excellence may not always translate into success at the retail politics level).

“I don’t think you can be a proper democrat without understanding how the electorate really thinks and how they react to things. And I want to test all the ideas that political science, my own experience and reading other people’s experiences brings.”

Daniel Finkelstein, UK Podcasting Today, 20 October 2023

The 11 June 2024 edition of How to win an Election was particularly insightful. The regular panel was joined by Frank Luntz, the American pollster and political strategist. I first became aware of Luntz with this 2007 book Words That Work (https://www.amazon.com/Books-Frank-Luntz/s?rh=n%3A283155%2Cp_27%3AFrank+Luntz) It’s a book that focuses on the language of politics, and includes a lesson that political strategists ignore at their peril: When it comes to creating political messages, “It’s not what you say, it’s what people hear”.

Luntz said the differences between American and UK national elections are striking. He says UK election campaigns deal with issues in a more substantial way. There is less talk about issues and policies in the US campaign and the UK campaign is far more serious.

Luntz said the UK is heading towards “one of the biggest landslides I have every seen in my professional career”, with Labour set to win an even bigger majority than Tony Blair’s massive win in 1997.

“I was involved in the Canadian election in 1993, where the Conservative Party went from 157 seats to two in one night. I worked for the Reform Party. I’ve been apologizing for that for the last 30 years. It destroyed the Conservative Party.”

Frank Luntz, How to win and Election podcast, 11 June 2024

Just one year ago, Luntz made a presentation to the 1922 Committee, the group of UK Conservative backbenchers. Their deliberations are supposed to be confidential. However, Luntz’s pronouncements were immediately leaked to most major news outlets. At that time, Luntz said any MP with a majority of 15,000 votes or less was in real trouble. Luntz said recent events have proven him wrong. The actual number is now 20,000 votes or less. Any majority less than that is almost certain to be insufficient for Tory candidate re-election.

Luntz says three simple words come to voters’ minds when they think about UK Conservatives: Ignored, forgotten, betrayed.

Ignored–that their voice doesn’t matter. Forgotten, that they were promised something and they never delivered; And the worst of all is betrayed. When you feel betrayed, that’s what makes you angry. When you feel betrayed, you want to vote against. And that’s why the (UK) Reform Party is doing as well as it is.”

Frank Luntz, How to win an Election podcast, 11 June 2024

According to Luntz, voters aren’t looking for pragmatism, because that suggests a politician will say anything to secure your vote. He says voters are looking for common sense ideas and political leaders who are willing to be less ideologically driven.

“Your show is called “How to win an election”. The very first thing you have to do is ask a question. Ask the voters: Are you angry? Are you satisfied? Do you think you’re going to have a better future? Are you better off today? Ask them something. I don’t hear that (from the UK Conservatives). The second thing is to have is an acknowledgement that you hear them and that you understand them and that you ‘get it’. I don’t hear that from the Conservatives, either.”

Frank Luntz, How to win an Election podcast, 11 June 2024

Luntz also had some critical comments for UK Labour, currently more than 20 points ahead and overwhelming favorite to win the next election. He said with that lead, Keir Starmer should be willing to sacrifice 20 seats of his majority and be brutally honest with voters and tell them exactly what a Labour government plans to do in their first 100 days in office, and the first 1,000 days. Luntz says Labour is currently trying to blur issues and be overly simplistic in their commitments, but voters deserve to hear the truth and would respect politicians who are honest and specific in their approach.

Saskatchewan politicians facing the electorate in the fall might do well to consider the Luntz approach: A brutal and frank assessment of current challenges and a clear, specific list of common sense policies designed to improve the lives of the people who live here.

You can listen to the entire podcast here:

https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/how-to-win-an-election/id1712827143

Near the end, Luntz says if the US election were held today, Donald Trump would win. Trump’s felony conviction on 34 counts of fraud has only cost him two points in the polls. The entire US election will come down to the results in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin–states where Trump currently leads.

Frightening.

The leaders of the UK’s two main political parties entered into the first debate of that country’s general election campaign. Both promised to avoid personal attacks against the other. Like all pre-debate political promises, their pledge didn’t last very long.

In a preview of what Saskatchewan voters will likely see this fall (and are already seeing on social media) the right wing Conservatives are attacking left-wing Labour with predictions of massive tax increases, a charge Labour seems to be ignoring to their peril.

Sadly, both leaders seemed to back away from initiatives aimed at reversing climate change, potentially creating an opportunity for Britain’s Green Party, which scored numerous victories in recent municipal elections .

Inside the room, the audience seemed more supportive of the Labour Leader. Most of the UK’s right-leaning daily newspapers though (perhaps unsurprisingly) that the current Prime Minister won the debate.

UK voters head to the polls July 4, 2024 .

Teachers in Saskatchewan have overwhelmingly rejected what government negotiators described as a “final offer” for a new province-wide collective agreement. The vote results were announced on the evening of 09 May 2024. Ninety percent of those casting ballots chose to reject the offer. Here’s a link to the news conference Samantha Becotte had on the morning after the vote results were announced:

stf.sk.ca

The sticking point in negotiations has been Education Minister Jeremy Cockrill’s repeated refusal to include provisions in a new collective agreement respecting student learning conditions and teacher working conditions–more specifically, provisions that would help solve problems related to large class sizes and the increasingly complex needs presented by students in contemporary classrooms.

During consultations prior to the start of negotiations–all the way through to the most recent vote, Saskatchewan teachers have made it abundantly clear solving these important issues is a key priority. The most recent example of how this is possible comes from Nova Scotia: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/tentative-contract-nova-scotia-teachers-1.7190964

However, in a media interview on the morning after the vote, Cockrill didn’t seem to budge when asked if the overwhelming “no” vote by teachers would cause him and his government to “rethink their position”:

“I’ve been clear right from the start: class size, complexity — that does not belong in the provincial agreement. That continues to be the government’s position.”

Evan Bray Show, 10 May 2024 ckom.com

And when asked directly if government had ruled out the possibility of back-to-work legislation, Cockrill seemed less than categorical:

“Now, I suppose Evan that would be a possibility. That’s not somewhere we want to go, though. I’ve been clear all throughout the process–every time I’ve had an opportunity to talk to you. you know, the best place to get an agreement is going to be at the bargaining table. That’s really where we want to get to.
Obviously at the end of the day, we do ensure, you know, predictability and stability for education in the province. We’re looking for options around how we ensure that. The first priority is getting back to the bargaining table.” (emphasis added)

Evan Bray Show 10 May 2024

The entire interview can be found at the link below. The section on back-to-work legislation can be found at the 9:30 mark.

Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe has been even more explicit in his language, framing the STF’s bargaining request as an attempt to get government to hand over authority for education spending to the Saskatchewan Teachers’ Federation:

So, where does this all land and what happens next? In order to make headway at the bargaining table, one side or the other will have to alter their position on a set of fundamental issues: class size and classroom complexity. With a 90 percent “no” vote, teachers seem to have made their voices heard loudly and clearly.

And for the record, these opinions represent my own views as an interested observer. This post does not represent the official position of the STF’s Teacher’s Bargaining Committee.

The dust is starting to settle and we are beginning to see the bigger picture behind last night’s by-election and municipal results across the UK.

It looks good for Labour and bad for the Conservatives.

A 26 point swing is very rare. Loosing 500 seats is catastrophic. And you never want to see the words “worst performance in 40 years” connected to any of your endeavours.

The UK general election will likely be held in October.

Thank you to everyone who participated in my LINC day presentation in Saskatoon on May 3, 2024.

My talk made a number of references to materials which are available at the links below.

CBC article from 2009 about changes to Saskatchewan’s education property tax system:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/saskatchewan-school-boards-stripped-of-power-to-set-taxes-1.820998

Saskatchewan’s 2009-2010 Provincial Budget: https://pubsaskdev.blob.core.windows.net/pubsask-prod/34560/34560-Budget200910SummaryBook.pdf

February 2024 Michelle Prytula article in Policy Options: https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/february-2024/saskatchewan-education-funding/

March 21, 2012 CTV Saskatchewan story on new education funding formula: https://regina.ctvnews.ca/details-of-new-education-funding-formula-released-1.784904

June 2, 2020 Leader Post article on Bill 63: https://leaderpost.com/news/local-news/a-closer-look-at-bill-63-the-controversial-education-act-amendment

Hit ‘Em Where It Hurts: How to save democracy by beating Republicans at their own game. Rachel Bitecofer, Penguin, 2024. https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/726798/hit-em-where-it-hurts-by-rachel-bitecofer-with-aaron-murphy/

The Problem with HR, Caitlin Flanagan. July 2019 issue of The Atlantic: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/07/hr-workplace-harrassment-metoo/590644/

Sun West Board of Education member faces backlash for online comment. West Central Online, April 17, 2024: https://www.westcentralonline.com/articles/sun-west-board-member-faces-backlash-for-online-comment

Sask. Rivers board decides to remain status quo on campaign finance reporting: PA Daily Herald, April 16, 2024. https://paherald.sk.ca/sask-rivers-board-decides-to-remain-status-quo-on-campaign-finance-reporting/

Sask Rivers board chair wins Saskatchewan Party nomination in Batoche; PA Daily Herald, February 6, 2024: https://paherald.sk.ca/sask-rivers-board-chair-wins-saskatchewan-party-nomination-in-batoche/

Amazon press release template: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1GjsGAlxsCGYYpXwFBjiExHGVVRq_M6C0jAbSIS08PNY/edit

Murray Mandryk’s recent column illustrates a point that is not fully appreciated by the public; Negative advertising and nasty campaigning tactics are loathed by the public. However, these tactics are widely embraced, because they work. And they work very well. https://leaderpost.com/opinion/columnists/mandryk-robocalls

However, like many columnists, Mandryk imagines a better world where the current Saskatchewan government invests less time slagging opponents and more time actually solving the problems facing our province:

“Just imagine if the ingenuity spent demonizing its opponents was put toward classroom overcrowding or hiring more specialists and nurses.“

As for why political leaders engage in hammering their opponents in nasty robotexts, other — even deeper factors, may be at play.

Politicians are not normal people. As was explored in a recent column by Matthew Harris (The Times, 19 April 2024) politics, by and large, attracts people with “…a stunted appreciation for risk”.

Bottom line: don’t expect politics to change much as we approach a provincial general election on October 28, 2024.

With so much at stake and with political careers hanging in the balance (never mind the future of Saskatchewan) campaign discourse will become increasingly strident.

I repeat… that all power is a trust; that we are accountable for its exercise; Benjamin Disraeli.

I’ve watched many debates and Question Periods during my time in journalism and in government. I’ve never seen anything like this.

The blatant disrespect and hyper-partisan language is disturbing and inexcusable.

And it’s not just today.

This has been brewing for months.

Government members are on the cusp of creating a crisis of legitimacy and a crisis of confidence in the Saskatchewan Legislature.

It’s time for some sober reflection.

The people of Saskatchewan believe in fairness. They are practical people.

They won’t put up with this for long.