Everyone in Saskatchewan should be interested in elections and campaign strategy. We’re about to get a bunch of elections. People across Saskatchewan will vote in a province-wide election at the end of October (or possibly sooner, but I somehow doubt it). Municipal and school board elections take place in mid-November, I’m sure just has voter fatigue begins to set in. And as we have seen with the recent announcements by two high-profile candidates for Mayor of Saskatoon, we are about to get inundated with campaign literature, political messaging and promises of future performance. So many promises.

Thus, it behooves all of us to seek out information, make comparisons and exercise our franchise in a critical and responsible manner. And, for those who want to take matters a step further, I’ve accidently discovered a podcast from The Times in London that does an excellent job explaining the behind the scenes work done in organizing a major political campaign. Yes, it’s from the UK. However, after listening to several episodes, I have discovered this podcast, along with being entertaining, does a great job at shedding light on the strategies, tactics, organizational and logistical challenges and personalities involved in the political process. In so far as these successful electioneering concepts cross party lines and cross-pollinate through national boundaries, it holds much of relevance for Saskatchewan and Canada (in fact, several recent episodes have mentioned how UK Conservatives are now focused with horror on Canada’s 1993 election where our Tories were reduced to just a pair of seats).

The podcast is called How to win an Election and is available on Apple Podcasts and all of the other usual locations.

The program is hosted by Times Radio presenter Matt Chorley who does a commendable job of allowing his guests the room to develop their answers. Chorley also has the sadly rare skill of asking questions that are actually questions–giving program participants something to chew on.

.About the only sour note in the entire program (literally and metaphorically) is the theme music, which some may appreciate but I find particularly grating. In fact, the annoying nature of the theme music has become something of a running gag in recent weeks.

The regular guest commentators are three giants in recent UK political life: Daniel Finkelstein, Peter Mandelson and Polly Mackenzie.

Mackenzie is a well known and well respected policy expert who negotiated the Liberal Democrat-Conservative coalition and then spent five years working with deputy prime minister Nick Clegg in Downing Street (she may look back on this period with mixed feelings since significant cuts and restraint during the Cameron years probably led to a long period in the political wilderness for the Lib-Dems).

“I’m excited to pick apart the twists and turns of the looming election with this supremely experienced panel, who’ve seen elections from inside and out, upside and down, and every side of the track.”

Polly Mackenzie, UK Podcasting Today, 20 October 2023

Peter Mandelson is a giant in UK politics. He’s a former Labour cabinet minister, an advisor to Neil Kinnock, John Smith, Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. Mandelson is one of the engineers of New Labour’s massive election win in 1997.

“There is no better time to put election campaigns under the microscope and ask how Labour is going to end its long run of election losses and whether the Tories still have some fight left in them.”

Peter Mandelson, UK Podcasting Today, 20 October 2023

Daniel Finkelstein is to Conservatives is what Mandelson is to Labour. He’s been a key advisor in successful campaigns led by David Cameron and the unsuccessful campaign led by John Major. Baron Finkelstein (OBE) is also former executive editor of The Times and continues to write an excellent weekly political column. He was also an unsuccessful Conservative parliamentary candidate for Harrow West. (There’s no shame in political advisors losing elections. One of the greatest minds in American politics, JFK speechwriter Ted Sorensen, ran and bombed spectacularly. Strategic excellence may not always translate into success at the retail politics level).

“I don’t think you can be a proper democrat without understanding how the electorate really thinks and how they react to things. And I want to test all the ideas that political science, my own experience and reading other people’s experiences brings.”

Daniel Finkelstein, UK Podcasting Today, 20 October 2023

The 11 June 2024 edition of How to win an Election was particularly insightful. The regular panel was joined by Frank Luntz, the American pollster and political strategist. I first became aware of Luntz with this 2007 book Words That Work (https://www.amazon.com/Books-Frank-Luntz/s?rh=n%3A283155%2Cp_27%3AFrank+Luntz) It’s a book that focuses on the language of politics, and includes a lesson that political strategists ignore at their peril: When it comes to creating political messages, “It’s not what you say, it’s what people hear”.

Luntz said the differences between American and UK national elections are striking. He says UK election campaigns deal with issues in a more substantial way. There is less talk about issues and policies in the US campaign and the UK campaign is far more serious.

Luntz said the UK is heading towards “one of the biggest landslides I have every seen in my professional career”, with Labour set to win an even bigger majority than Tony Blair’s massive win in 1997.

“I was involved in the Canadian election in 1993, where the Conservative Party went from 157 seats to two in one night. I worked for the Reform Party. I’ve been apologizing for that for the last 30 years. It destroyed the Conservative Party.”

Frank Luntz, How to win and Election podcast, 11 June 2024

Just one year ago, Luntz made a presentation to the 1922 Committee, the group of UK Conservative backbenchers. Their deliberations are supposed to be confidential. However, Luntz’s pronouncements were immediately leaked to most major news outlets. At that time, Luntz said any MP with a majority of 15,000 votes or less was in real trouble. Luntz said recent events have proven him wrong. The actual number is now 20,000 votes or less. Any majority less than that is almost certain to be insufficient for Tory candidate re-election.

Luntz says three simple words come to voters’ minds when they think about UK Conservatives: Ignored, forgotten, betrayed.

Ignored–that their voice doesn’t matter. Forgotten, that they were promised something and they never delivered; And the worst of all is betrayed. When you feel betrayed, that’s what makes you angry. When you feel betrayed, you want to vote against. And that’s why the (UK) Reform Party is doing as well as it is.”

Frank Luntz, How to win an Election podcast, 11 June 2024

According to Luntz, voters aren’t looking for pragmatism, because that suggests a politician will say anything to secure your vote. He says voters are looking for common sense ideas and political leaders who are willing to be less ideologically driven.

“Your show is called “How to win an election”. The very first thing you have to do is ask a question. Ask the voters: Are you angry? Are you satisfied? Do you think you’re going to have a better future? Are you better off today? Ask them something. I don’t hear that (from the UK Conservatives). The second thing is to have is an acknowledgement that you hear them and that you understand them and that you ‘get it’. I don’t hear that from the Conservatives, either.”

Frank Luntz, How to win an Election podcast, 11 June 2024

Luntz also had some critical comments for UK Labour, currently more than 20 points ahead and overwhelming favorite to win the next election. He said with that lead, Keir Starmer should be willing to sacrifice 20 seats of his majority and be brutally honest with voters and tell them exactly what a Labour government plans to do in their first 100 days in office, and the first 1,000 days. Luntz says Labour is currently trying to blur issues and be overly simplistic in their commitments, but voters deserve to hear the truth and would respect politicians who are honest and specific in their approach.

Saskatchewan politicians facing the electorate in the fall might do well to consider the Luntz approach: A brutal and frank assessment of current challenges and a clear, specific list of common sense policies designed to improve the lives of the people who live here.

You can listen to the entire podcast here:

https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/how-to-win-an-election/id1712827143

Near the end, Luntz says if the US election were held today, Donald Trump would win. Trump’s felony conviction on 34 counts of fraud has only cost him two points in the polls. The entire US election will come down to the results in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin–states where Trump currently leads.

Frightening.